The results are finally out for the Iowa Caucuses that kicked off the race for the nomination from the Democrat and Republican parties in the US Presidential
Elections 2008. Yes, it is bigger than the price for a barrel of oil went above $100 yesterday. This is an interesting election for the US because it is the first time that there is no incumbent president and vice president seeking office beyond 2008. Without doubt, the campaigning started so early that we have heard the candidates on their various positions from social security, healthcare, foreign policy and the economy over and over again for the whole of 2007. So, the winners are out: Mike Huckabee (former Governor of Arkansas, left - photo from Associated Press) and Barack Obama (US Senator, Illinois, right). What does this tell us the things to come? Over the whole year, I have been following this election and have a lot of interesting and exciting discussion with my American friends. Here are some thoughts on the Iowa Caucuses and where this might be heading towards.
- Change is for Democrats and Values are for Republicans in Iowa: Notice that I limit it to Iowa, since we would be seeing the results of the other primaries till the Super-Duper Tuesday on 5 Feb 2008. The Democrat constituency in Iowa seems to favor change over experience, otherwise Hillary Clinton would not have fallen to 3rd place, just a small margin before John Edwards. The theme which Barack Obama has campaigned upon is change, given that the majority of the American population are now agreeing that the Bush administration might end up to be the worst in the entire US history. When I first read Obama's book "The Audacity of Hope" last year, I told my friends that the book is reminiscent of John F. Kennedy's "Profiles of Courage" before he became the US president in 1961. On the other hand, Mike Huckabee won by the help of the Christian right in the hawk-eye state. However, one should note that a lot of independents have entered into the voting, and Obama has managed to garner a lot of votes that took him to victory over his opponents. Of course, Huckabee's victory tells us something more: money can't buy votes. He was outspent by Mitt Romney in 20 to 1 on campaign ads and operations, and he managed to pull out a David on Romney's Goliath strategy to win the early states. I kinda liked Huckabee when he first came on the race as early as Feb. He has a witty sense of humor and is a closet Democrat (given that he raised taxes and has a liberal approach on immigration, but he's very weak on foreign policy). Before I forget, Mike Huckabee did tell Stephen Colbert that he might consider offering the comedian a vice presidential role if he wins the nomination. That would be hilarious.
- Brokered Convention for the Republicans?: With Huckabee winning Iowa, John McCain might take New Hampshire and that would almost kill Romney's campaign. Of course, the person who would gain from all these events might be Rudy Giuliani, because if there is no clear winner for the first 5 primaries, he might be able to come in to win the nomination by taking out the big states like California and New York in the Super-Duper Tuesday on 5 Feb 2008. However, the Republican field is so fragmented that it might lead to a brokered convention, i.e. they don't have a winner by the Republican convention and the candidates and the party delegates must negotiate to decide on someone to fight the election. Guess what, for some time, I thought that a brokered convention only happens in the fictional world of the West Wing (but it happens for the Democrats in that drama series), but now we might get to see one, since the last one happened in 1954. Hey, what happened to the days where the parties decide their winners over cigars in a backroom?
- Is it really over yet for Clinton and Romney?: It may be so, given that the last time when John Kerry won Iowa, his momentum just crashed everyone. It seems that being a frontrunner is a bad idea in US primaries. If you peaked before the month, you get hammered left, right and centre from all your opponents. It sounds like a similar situation in game theory, where the 2nd player may win the eventual game if he or she execute the correct move on certain game-theoretic scenarios.
- The statement "America will never elect a black president this year" falls apart: I have been hearing this from my American friends (living in Asia and Europe) all the time. Seems that Barack Obama has managed to overcome the impossible by winning a state with 95% white. Maybe they watched too much of the TV series 24, where there is a black candidate who won the elections and become president. Well, Barack Obama has managed to bring change in two ways, by convincing the voters that he has a way to unify the country without being too partisan and telling people that his minority status is not giving him problems in getting the nomination. Even if the true blue redneck white American don't vote for him in the southern states, he might be able to take the north and west states to win the generals.
It has been an exciting election, and by 5 Feb 2008, we might see a Democratic nominee and a brokered convention on the Republican front. Of course, the US presidential election has an impact to the world, because of the economy. So, watch this space, even if you are like me, living in a small island in Singapore.
Notes: Check out RealClearPolitics, Daily Kos, the Huffington Post and The Politico for their post Iowa commentaries and how that might move things forward to New Hampshire. I can't wait to listen to the NPR podcasts "It's all politics" (NPR), "Left, Right and Center" (KCRW), "Meet the Press" (MSNBC) and "Face the Nation" (CBS) this weekend.
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