Is the Myanmar Bloodshed inevitable?

In Myanmar (see the picture on the left and it is from BBC), there are tens of thousands civilians, monks and nuns protesting on the streets, calling for democracy and power back to the opposition. This protest is slightly different from the past because it began from the peace loving monks and nuns. They could not tolerate the military junta who have ruled the country with an iron fist. Of course, they have asked for the freedom of the famous opposition leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, who is currently under house arrest. The whole event has been coordinated well with the help of technology and we are able to catch on first hand what is going on there.

In the past twenty years ever since Tiananmen (which I remembered vividly), every such type of protest in Asia (except for Philippines and Indonesia after the Asian financial crisis) usually have ended up in bloodshed. While the military junta has already moved to put their troops on the ground, a possible bloodshed may take place soon. If that happens, a lot of innocent lives will be sacrificed in the process. So, how is the world going to do about this? While the US has already started the sanctions, it is now very interesting to watch what China is going to do about this. My feeling is that ASEAN will take an non-interventionist approach aka do nothing and let it happen which is something that I am personally against.

Update: I made a correction for Indonesia on the issue of violence in the protest and thank J. Louis for the corrrection. Also read this news: ASEAN inter-parliamentary chief says protests augur well for Myanmar, ChannelNewsAsia.com, and I do wonder whether the ASEAN governments will support the Myanmar people instead of the Junta.

26 Sep 2007 3.30pm: Unfortunately, the riot police has retaliated against the protesters.

Comments

[Burmese]

To Sean:

Well, I think you should go and live in a monastery in Burma just a week to find out if the monks are having a good life and making good money or not before you make a statement which totally insults at the sacrifices made by burmese monks and the way of buddhism. Monks got involved coz when the civilian rules became useless to guide the buddhist junta, they thought at least the buddha's teachings would have the junta do a little bit of right things. We burmese are too poor to donate money to the monks. so, stop making a statment which u have no idea about.

[Sarah Somarajan]

The recent crackdown by the junta and seeing civilians fleeing for their lives on TV is saddening and heartbreaking.

International leaders and other countries have to do something MORE than simply issuing a statement that they are concerned. ASEAN should not just issue a 'coordinated' response. They HAVE to ensure that there are no ties with the junta whatsoever, especially on economic terms.

Singapore should take the lead forward. Singapore as the chairman of the ASEAN standing committee, should not merely express 'a coordinated response'. The notion of non-interference has to take a backseat in light of many innocent lives being lost. It cannot stop by simply 'expressing revulsion'. This is the opportunity for ASEAN to quit being a white elephant. ASEAN relationships should be based more than mere economics and the social unity of heads of states wearing coordinated colored outfits on an annual ASEAN meeting.

Reading the posts by some Burma bloggers http://news.independent.co.uk/world/asia/article3001622.ece
has helped me to understand their predicament better. It is extremely disheartening. Surely neighbouring countries should do MUCH more.

Internationally, countries like the United States have been taking some concrete action (based on the reports I've read, I spose) and here in Australia, there has been a strengthening of sanctions, however, Aust does not engage in much trade with Burma to being with.

As a Singaporean, I feel very sad for the people of Burma and only wish I could do more............

[Sean]

While we all can appreciate the image of the poor, the desolute, the woefully oppressed who have slaved in the streets only to be beaten and abused by the horrilble military regime, let`s look at the real reason there are demonstrations in Mynmar.

The blog at the top writes:
"They could not tolerate the military junta who have ruled the country with an iron fist."

Poetic, sympathetic, romantic - but not fully accurate.

As many of you know, the monks of Mynmar, Thailand, and other SouthEast Asian countries (my apologies, I do not know about industrialized countries) live off the generosity of others. Basically, they get their food, transporation and money by the donations of the average person.
When, just recently, the government increased gas prices in Myanmar by (rumor has it several times the previous cost - but don`t quote me on this as I haven`t been able to find the exact numbers yet),well, you can see how there will be less money for the monks! So, in reaction to this, the monks staged a peaceful demonstration in Pakokku. The government reacted harshly and then the monks really took to the streets.

So, when we look a little farther beyond the rally cries of democracy for all and such poetic idealism, we see that the reason for all of this is because, just like the rest of the world, gas prices increased in Myanmar leaving less money for the monks.

They want their share of the pie too, and if that share goes to gas, well, there may not be enough to go around.

See: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,297170,00.html
http://edition.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/asiapcf/09/19/myanmar.monks.ap/index.html

Fox News story on Sep. 18th
CNN News story on Sept. 19th

to learn more about the reason for this.

But, let`s not falsly argue that it is the oppressed fighting against an "IRON FIST" type military dictatorship. What we have are monks who will receive less money in the form of donations becasue gas prices have increased ( just like they have for you and me ).

[James Chia]

Singapore, being the biggest Southeast Asian investor in Myanmar and also the current chairman of ASEAN, should take the initiative to threaten the junta with economic sanctions. But to think again, it's simply impossible because we have a very money-minded government.

[aung san sue me]

Kenrick, that's drivel. While China has imposed its power in Tibet, it does so as a matter of sovereign right and treats the question of Tibet - as Taiwan - as an internal matter. Outside of China, the Chinese have always maintained a policy of non-interference with the internal affairs of other sovereign countries. In that at least, China has been consistent.

As for China's purported sway with the Burmese - don't overstate things. When push comes to shove, China has little if any bargaining influence over the junta. The view that China has greater-than-nominal influence with Rangoon - an idea currently making its rounds in the Western media - is overhyped.

I fear there will be blood. The only thing constraining the junta now is international oppobrium (including China's), behind the scenes diplomatic pressure from ASEAN (not sure how much that counts for), great fear of revolution if they touch the monks, and if the crackdown fails - their own demise by a coup or worse.

[Bernard Leong]

j.louis,

Thanks for the comment.
I was referring to the protesters when I made the point. You are right about the atrocities committed on the Indonesian Chinese.

[j. louis]

you didn't see bloodshed in indonesia? where were you? i saw too much yet most was kept from the press. the gov't was good at deflecting the blame for the problems to the indonesian chinese. many of them were killed before the violence spread elsewhere.
power breeds arrogance.

[YIN]

i am sure there will be bloodshed but for the worse if international community take an non-interventionist approach specially China and Asean. Asean should be pressured as well by international community as they are putting business ahead of people's plight. If nothing is being done about our country this time, its a shame to humanity and so called civilized nations. I do agree with Joseph boycott the chinese olympic.

[art calderon inguillo]

Long live the Burmese people struggle for a free and just society!

While a Filipino, I have always dreamed for my Burmese friends to collectively rise up to the challenge of oppression and tyranny in their native country, and show to the world that enough is enough, that Burmese people would no longer be intimadated by the forces of evil and tyranny in their society.

I have personally listened to my Burmese friends stories of sufferings, cruelty, corruptions and even murders, and I can only hope and pray that this time, the Burmese people have finally find their courage and strength to stop their rulers in destroying their human dignity, and bring back to them the respect of the world as a people and as a society.

I can only hope that the WORLD will listen to the cries of the Burmese people, and help in what ever way they can in bringing change and freedom to these gentle and peace-loving people.

MABUHAY kayo BURMESE PEOPLE and goodluck!

[Eric Kareus]

If there is restraint by the junta over the next 48 hours then everything will change in Burma for the best and for the worst. Things will change forever and that which is needed most will come to the forefront and that which is needed least in the form of globalization will determine the country's future forever. God bless Aung San and may peace be with my friends at the front of the struggle against tyrany in a country that represents both the most unique and worst of the old world order.

[mark S]

Of course there will be bloodshed. And companies will continue doing business with China no matter what happens, because most people in power are scum.
Everywhere a commoner goes there are people going out of their way to control others lives. Burma is no different.
If I saw peaceful demonstrators get gun down the first time, I would make sure I have more than a weapon of peace to work with. Ruthless dictators need to feel pain.

[arend]

The people of Myanmar have hit the eject button of the junta. Because this junta is unable to come to grips with such. I therefore conclude that bloodshed is unavoidable !

[Joseph Kenrick]

In the spirit of the Olympics, all nations should stand behind what they profess and boycott the chinese olympics. From Burma to Tibet and all those even more obscure areas in between, China has imposed its power shamelessly.

If he Olympics take place in china, then the olympics are just one more plutocratic tool to accumulate wealth and entertain the ignorant masses.

Screw the olympics. A medal from china is a symbol of shame. Stroking ego at the expense of the oppressed is shameless and arrogant.

[ajish]

i strongly believe there will not be a bloodshed.